Source: Seeking Alpha
By: Carl Delfeld
04.21.2013
It came up while grilling steaks and enjoying a gin & tonic after watching the riveting finish to the Master’s golf tournament. Australia’s Adam Scott outdueled Angel Cabrera of Argentina in pouring rain to capture the coveted green jacket.
Taking this international competition to a different arena, the topic came up; where would you rather invest right now, Australia or Argentina?
On the face of it, it seems a ridiculous question to even consider. After all, Australia has had 16 years of continuous growth, is at the sweet spot of Asian trade and a financially strong free market economy. Argentina is, well, another kettle of fish with high inflation, import and capital restrictions and high levels of government interference in the economy.
But let’s look at it this way, which country offers investors lower downside risk and higher upside potential?
In the case of Australia (EWA), expectations to continue their economic run are high. What could go wrong? Perhaps its dependency on China’s capital and export market will boomerang? About a third of Australian exports go to China and 96% of China’s investment is in Australian commodities that could go south at any time. Australia’s high real estate prices could also pop - leading to financial turbulence. Then there is the complacency that comes with success that almost always leads to unexpected disappointments that markets punish.
In contrast, to put it politely, expectations for Argentina (ARGT) are quite low. It can’t get much worse. This is why its market is trading at valuations about one half that of Australia.
In other words, we seem to be at what John Templeton famously called the “point of maximum pessimism”. Templeton made a lot of money for investors taking action during his career when most investors were heading for the hills.
This is important. Templeton’s record shows that things do not have to be great for stock markets to make a major move – they just have to get a bit better. Oftentimes, just the likelihood of new political leadership and few market reforms can lead to a surge of capital and build into a bull market.
Argentina cries out for more freedom of competition. While, President Christina Kirchner’s administration is unlikely to provide it, she won’t be there forever and jockeying for the top job is already underway. But remember that while buying low is important, finding bargains among quality companies will always give you the best chance of success.
This is why I selected last year as my Argentine gambit, farming giant Cresud (CRESY). Cresud is one of the largest farming companies in Latin America. The company produces agricultural commodities like corn, wheat, soybeans, sunflower, sorghum, milk and beef cattle on about half a million hectares of land. In addition to Argentina, Cresud owns significant farmland in Brazil as well as other South American countries...
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