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Source: Morgan Stanley- Research
We expect MSCI to announce its decision whether to upgrade
MSCI Argentina to EM status on June 20, and the IMF to
announce a potential USD30bn+ SBA in mid/late June. Both
events should be important catalysts for local asset prices.
Investment conclusion: we see an interesting risk reward equation for Argentine
equities in June and in Q3. We analyzed the historical performance of MSCI
country benchmarks around all 44 episodes of MSCI upgrades and extensions
that have happened over the past 25 years (here). We discuss below, more
specifically, the performance of a) 3 EM upgrade cases (UAE, Qatar & Pakistan)
and b) 23 EM extension cases from 4 weeks before to 12 weeks after the
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